Suchergebnisse

Implicit in fiscal policy debates is that there is a trade‐off between output and debt outcomes; stimulus is at the expense of debt, and austerity at the expense of output. This paper theoretically and empirically investigates this trade‐off through analysing the relationship between traditional output multipliers and 'debt multipliers' (the impact of policy on government debt). Theoretically the elasticity between the two is the marginal tax rate from movements of output in response to policy. This leads to two further hypotheses: first, if the marginal tax rate in the private sector is higher than that in the public sector, changes in government spending will result in a larger impact on debt than changes in taxes; and second, 'fiscal free lunches' are possible with recent estimates of the output multiplier. Indeed, empirically we find that tax revenues increase from exogenous tax cuts when the response of output is high.

Are certain forms of government associated with superior economic outcomes? This paper attempts to answer that question by examining how government systems influence macroeconomic performance. We find that presidential regimes consistently are associated with less favorable outcomes than parliamentary regimes: slower output growth, higher and more volatile inflation and greater income inequality. Moreover, the magnitude of the effect is sizable. For example, annual output growth is between 0.6 and 1.2 percentage points lower and inflation is estimated to be at least four percentage points higher under presidential regimes relative to those under parliamentary ones. The difference in distributional outcomes is even starker; income inequality is 12 to 24% worse under presidential systems.

AbstractUsing a rich new data source, we explore the selection of economics lecturers into the last UK Research Excellence Framework (REF) exercise. Only some one‐in‐two (54%) of these lecturers were submitted to REF2014; 57% of men and 46% of women. The decision making of institutions is found to be well approximated by a simplified selection approach; focusing on working papers and higher quality journal publications. Our results also reveal sizeable conditional differences in the probability of selection, especially so in departments with higher research rankings. More than half of the variance in selection probability remains unexplained, revealing considerable idiosyncrasies in the management of submissions and uncertainty across the discipline in this research assessment process.

This paper is closed access until 11 September 2019. ; This paper builds a framework to jointly examine the possibility of both 'expansionary fiscal contractions' (austerity increasing output) and 'fiscal free lunches' (expansions reducing government debt), arguments supported by the austerity and stimulus camps, respectively, in recent debates. We propose a new metric quantifying the budgetary implications of fiscal action, a key aspect of fiscal policy particularly at the monetary zero lower bound. We find that austerity needs to be highly persistent and credible to be expansionary; and stimulus temporary, responsive, and well‐targeted in order to lower debt. We conclude that neither are likely, especially during periods of economic distress.

Recent empirical evidence strongly points to the state dependence of fiscal multipliers that are larger in recessions than in expansions. Yet standard business cycle models face great difficulty in producing such asymmetric fiscal policy effects. By incorporating endogenously binding collateral constraints into a medium scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, we find that fiscal effectiveness can vary substantially across the business cycle. The key to our framework is the state‐dependent nature of collateral constraints—binding in bad times while slack in good times, amplifying the effectiveness of fiscal policy and hence generating fiscal multipliers that are larger during recessions.

The impacts of tourism boycotts on a destination's tourist economy can be vast, yet few studies have examined such events. This paper explores the effects of tourism boycotts by analysing seven events involving Chinese tourism boycotts during the past decade. The findings show that boycotts can significantly decrease visitor numbers. Also, non-political animosity boycotts and political animosity boycotts differ in their intensity and impact; the former are found to exert immediate short-term impacts, whereas the latter tend to have enduring effects. These results are based on local projection techniques using narratively identified boycott events and are robust to several specifications. This paper highlights tourism boycotts as a key risk factor in destination management.

Pregnancy is not a disease or illness, but requires clinical surveillance as life-threatening complications can develop. Preeclampsia, one such potentially serious complication, puts both mother and baby at risk. Self-monitoring blood pressure in the general population is well established, and its potential in pregnancy is currently being explored. In the context of self-monitoring, the information and guidance given to women regarding hypertension, and the literature they themselves seek out during pregnancy, are vital to perceptions of disease risk and subsequent responses to, and management of, any symptoms. Drawing on online, offline, official, and unofficial sources of information, discourses are examined to provide analysis of how self-responsibilization is reflected in contemporary information, advice, and guidance drawn from multiple sources. A paradox emerges between the paternalistic and lay discourses that seek to challenge and regain control. Findings are discussed in the context of Foucault's governmentality and medical power.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, telemedicine has emerged worldwide as an indispensable resource to improve the surveillance of patients, curb the spread of disease, facilitate timely identification and management of ill people, but, most importantly, guarantee the continuity of care of frail patients with multiple chronic diseases. Although during COVID-19 telemedicine has thrived, and its adoption has moved forward in many countries, important gaps still remain. Major issues to be addressed to enable large scale implementation of telemedicine include: (1) establishing adequate policies to legislate telemedicine, license healthcare operators, protect patients' privacy, and implement reimbursement plans; (2) creating and disseminating practical guidelines for the routine clinical use of telemedicine in different contexts; (3) increasing in the level of integration of telemedicine with traditional healthcare services; (4) improving healthcare professionals' and patients' awareness of and willingness to use telemedicine; and (5) overcoming inequalities among countries and population subgroups due to technological, infrastructural, and economic barriers. If all these requirements are met in the near future, remote management of patients will become an indispensable resource for the healthcare systems worldwide and will ultimately improve the management of patients and the quality of care.